It’s undoubtedly the game of the week with the Miami Dolphins in Buffalo to take on the Bills.
This will be the stiffest test of the season so far for each of the division rivals as Miami looks to stake its claim as the new king of the AFC East, while Buffalo wants to prove it’s still the team to beat. NFL odds have the Bills short 2.5-point favorites while this game has the highest total of the week at 53.5.
The Fins came close to beating the Bills twice in Buffalo last season — losing by three in mid-December and three once again in a wild-card game where Skylar Thompson was the starter. Miami hasn’t had much success in Buffalo recently, winning just once in its last ten trips.
Let’s dig into what: Here are my free NFL picks for the Dolphins vs. Bills on October 1.
Dolphins vs Bills odds
Dolphins vs Bills predictions
In case you haven’t heard, the Miami Dolphins hung 70 points on the Broncos in Week 3 and they probably could have scored more if they wanted to, as eight minutes remained on the clock on their final score of the game.
Miami is averaging a league-high 8.4 yards per play through three games, which is 2.2 yards higher than the next closest team. To put that 8.4 number into perspective, Kansas City led the league in yards per play in 2022 with 6.3. The Dolphins also rank first in red zone touchdown scoring percentage, yards per pass attempt, and first downs per game.
Perhaps most surprising for this offense though, is that the offensive line is allowing the lowest pressure percentage in the league through three games. Having a quarterback that gets the ball out extremely quickly obviously helps, but this wasn’t a highly regarded O line coming into the season. If they can keep Tua Tagovailoa clean, the offense should continue to roll.
While the Dolphins offense is getting all the headlines, don’t sleep on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. They’ve bounced back tremendously from that awful Week 1 performance by dropping 38 on the Raiders and 37 on the Commanders. They lead the NFL in third down conversion percentage while being tied for third in yards per rush attempt all while protecting Josh Allen, as they’ve allowed the fifth-lowest pressure percentage.
Taking a look at the defenses, each is right around the middle of the league in yards per play allowed, but each has played a fairly weak schedule of opposing offenses. This will be an enormous step up in competition for the Bills’ defense after playing the Jets, Raiders, and Commanders, while it’ll also be the biggest challenge for Miami’s defense following games against the Chargers, Patriots, and Broncos.
The Chargers clearly stand out among those six combined opponents and Miami’s defense struggled in that game, allowing 34 points and 433 yards.
Each defense clearly has some bright spots, but it won’t be a surprise to see either struggle. This was the case in the final two games between the teams last season where they combined for 61 points in Week 15 and 65 points in the wild-card matchup. This is clearly a much different Dolphins offense than in that wild card game Skylar Thompson started in, and the weather conditions should be a lot more favorable as well.
Given what we’ve seen out of the offenses so far this season along with the recent games between the teams, it gives me all the reasons I need to roll with the Over in what I think will be an absolute shootout.
My best bet: Over 53.5 (-105 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Dolphins vs Bills same-game parlay
Over 53.5Dolphins +7.51Q Over 9.5
+247 at FanDuel
It’s quite possible that the Dolphins are the better team in this matchup. They beat the Bills last season in Miami and kept the two other games within three points, so taking them up through the key numbers of three and seven provides an excellent cushion.
We also have a trend that’s seen 15 of the last 21 Bills’ games go Over the first-quarter total. Miami ranks third in the league in first-quarter points at 8.0 per game, while Buffalo has scored 17 total 1Q points in its last two games. It should also be noted that these teams finished 31st and 26th in 1Q points allowed last season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Dolphins vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
This 2.5-point spread is a significant drop from Miami’s last two games in Buffalo. The Skylar Thompson wild-card game had the team as an enormous 14-point underdog, while it was a seven-point dog in the Week 15 matchup. The Dolphins are on a 6-0 ATS streak coming into this game and are also on a nice run as an underdog, going 9-4 ATS since November 11, 2021.
This is the smallest favorite the Bills have been at home in 22 games when they were also favored by 2.5 in a playoff game vs. the Ravens.
As for this total, it’s worth noting that these teams have already combined to top 36 points in four of six games, and eight of the last 10 games between the teams have seen at least one of them reach the 30-point mark.
