The Buffalo Bills made some great adjustments on offense last Sunday and look to carry that momentum into Week 3 when they face a 2-0 Washington Commanders team that currently sits as a 6.5-point home dog.
With Josh Allen’s quick passing negating the strength of the Commanders’ defense, can the Bills’ defense contain the Washington running game and force Sam Howell to beat them deep with possible rain and heavy winds in play?
Find out as we dissect the NFL odds in my free NFL picks for Bills vs. Commanders on September 24.
Bills vs Commanders odds
Bills vs Commanders predictions
The Washington Commanders barely beat the Broncos last week (trailed 21-3 at one point), the Broncos lost to the Raiders at home in Week 1, and the Buffalo Bills smashed the Raiders 38-10 last week.
Advantage, Buffalo.
Many will remember Josh Allen’s poor decision-making from Week 1, but the offense cleaned things up last week. Allen & Co. took what the defense gave them… and that was a ton of passes underneath.
Allen started that game 13-for-13, got the ball out quickly, and had just 4.9 intended air yards per pass (the second-shortest of any starting quarterback in Week 2). If Allen keeps things simple again in Week 3, he will take away the strength of the Commanders’ defensive line.
The Commanders are tied for the league lead in sacks with 10 but sit outside the Top 10 in pressure rate. If Allen continues to make quicker and less dangerous decisions with the ball, I don’t love Sam Howell leading a comeback for the second week in a row.
Through two games, Howell has been sacked 10 times, has one pick, and two fumbles (one lost) — all coming against two very bad defenses. The Bills’ rush defense tightened up last week and held Raiders running back Josh Jacobs to negative yardage, meaning Washington might not be able to lean as heavily as it would like on Brian Robinson.
I’m taking Buffalo to cover as 6.5-point chalk, but I’d keep an eye on Micah Hyde’s injury status before placing your wager. The star safety was a DNP on Wednesday (hamstring) and was limited in practice on Thursday.
My best bet: Bills -6.5 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bills vs Commanders same-game parlay
Buffalo Bills -6.5Stefon Diggs Over 69.5 receiving yardsDalton Kincaid anytime touchdown
+1,000 at bet365
With Dawson Knox listed as a DNP on Thursday, it could be rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid who sees a bigger role in the red zone. Buffalo has been giving the ball to RBs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray in tight, but Allen loves his TEs in close. His markets will head north if Knox can’t practice on Friday.
Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs has been a target hog through Buffalo’s first two games, sucking in nearly 30% of Allen’s targets. Seven targets for 66 yards was considered a “slow day” for the receiver last week, but the blowout of Las Vegas had a lot to do with it.
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Bills vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis
Buffalo was listed as -5.5 on the look-ahead, reopened at -6, hit as high as -7, and then some Washington money drove this to -6. While Washington won outright as a 3.5-point dog vs. Denver, the Commanders also failed to cover vs. Arizona as a decent 6.5-point home favorite.
This total has taken some Under money as it opened at 44.5 and has since dropped to 43. Combined, the teams are 2-2 O/U on the year, but Buffalo is not a fast team. The Bills rank 31st in pace of play at one play every 32.1 seconds and are averaging just 71 plays per game this year.
Another factor in the total dropping is the expectancy of 17-mph winds and a 65% chance of rain. Either way, early bettors who got on the initial total with an Under could be sitting with some serious CLV. Hell, there might be even more room for this total to move further south.
As for usage, James Cook is getting the snap share but had zero rushes inside the five-yard line last week, as Harris and Murray have become the go-to weapons near the goal line.
Washington has been heavily leaning on Robinson in the backfield, but backup Antonio Gibson has run 42 routes through two games and could have betting value if you target his receiving yards total (10.5). Meanwhile, TE Logan Thomas is questionable for Sunday with a concussion. Thomas soaked up a reasonable 17.5% target share last week against Denver, so Howell will be without a fairly good security blanket on Sunday.
