The MLS odds for Week 4 list Atlanta United, NYCFC and the LA Galaxy as heavy home favorites. At +400 odds the Portland Timbers are the biggest underdogs this weekend. Oddsmakers are split on the New England vs Nashville SC game as the MLS picks have that match with odds of +220 for the draw, the lowest draw odds available. Odds from March 17 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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MLS Predictions Week 4
For a league that is usually rife with scoring, Week 3 was an Under bettors dream as bets on Under 2.5 goals would have gone 10-4. There were four 1-1 draws, a 0-0 and four 1-0 wins. That s not normal for MLS play, but is more likely in the early stages of the season. We re starting off with one match we see following that Under trend, but then moving onto some matches where we could see goals in our MLS picks.
Keep in mind when making your MLS predictions that each of LAFC, Philadelphia, Orlando, Austin and Vancouver are all coming off CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) matches during the midweek.
Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United Prediction
There aren t a lot of Unders in this matchup in recent years. Last season the scores were 4-3, 2-1 (USOC), and 3-1. The Over is 8-1 in the past nine.
But that trend could reverse this week.
There are just two goals combined between these teams in five games this season. Both have come from Minnesota (1-0 and 1-1 scores). Colorado is one of three teams that have yet to score (SKC, MTL) in 4-0, 0-0 and 1-0 results. That also means that between these teams only six goals have been conceded and four of them came in Week 1 in Colorado s 4-0 road loss to Seattle.
The Loons have created just 2.0 xG so far and rank 29th in attacking third touches.
The Rapids have created 3.5 xG and rank 23rd in attacking third touches.
Only two teams have put fewer shots on target that the six that both teams have totalled this season.
The Rapids are missing striker Diego Rubio, while the Loons are still without playmaker Emanuel Reynoso, of whom the entire offense runs through for Minnesota. Last week Minnesota became the first team since 2010 to complete fewer than 50 percent (49.1) of its passes.
In a game missing stars, with two offensively challenged teams but who can play defense (MIN is third in xGA), the Under looks like the play for this week s MLS picks.
Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United picks: Under 2.5 (-110), risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
St Louis City SC vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction
Only three teams have seen all three of their games finish with both teams scoring. We just touched on one of them, and here is another of the three.
Expansion side St Louis sits top of the league after 3-2, 3-1 and 2-1 wins, against Austin, Charlotte and Portland respectively. They re the first expansion side since the 2009 Sounders to win their opening three games.
San Jose lost 2-1 to Atlanta, won 2-1 over Vancouver and won 1-0 over Colorado last week.
The Earthquakes allowed the second-most goals last season with 69. They were horrendous on the road winning just one game and allowing a goal in all but one road game. They have just one road win in their past 20. The Quakes have now allowed a goal on the road in 11 straight games, while also scoring themselves in eight of those 11. This season Jeremy Ebobisse already has two goals after leading the team with 16 last season.
With eight goals in three games, it s hard to bet against St Louis not finding the back of the net at home at CITYPARK this weekend. They re also second in shots on target with 18. However, they ve outperformed an xG of just 3.5 by a large amount.
St Louis City SC vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: Both teams to score over 2.5 goals (+100), risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
